Surviving FXRs: How the Countdown Works

• 40,000 FXRs left on January 1, 2026. FXR Archive's working estimate. Nobody keeps a roll call of FXRs, so this is not a registry count.
• 0.75% lost a year. Out of every 1,000 FXRs around at the start of a year, about 7 or 8 are gone for good by the end of it: wrecked, burned, rusted out, parted out or scrapped. A bike parked in a barn still counts.

FXRs left = 40,000 × 0.9925^t, where t is the number of years since January 1, 2026.

The loss is a percentage of what is left, not a fixed number of bikes. It compounds continuously, so the count drops smoothly through fractional years, and over any full year it comes out to exactly 0.75%. As the fleet shrinks, fewer bikes come off each year.

The clock starts at midnight Central time on January 1, 2026. A year is 365.25 days. The counter runs on your device clock, so it is live every time you open it.

The tenths drum: nobody loses a tenth of a bike. It is there so you can see the count move. It drops a notch about every 2.9 hours. The countdown is the time until the next whole FXR comes off the count.

Fast-forward demo: spins the drums at one year every 10 seconds, same 0.75% rate, so you can watch the carries roll. The gauge says DEMO while it runs. Turn it off and it rolls back to the live number.

The years in the projections table come from the song “In the Year 2525” by Zager and Evans (1969). Same formula, worked out for January 1 of each year.

The estimate drops below one whole FXR on August 11, 3433.

These assume 0.75% a year forever, which won't happen. Collectors slow the losses.

• No title, VIN or registration data sits behind it.
• Bikes come back. A parted out FXR can be rebuilt around its frame, and that does not show up here.
• It does not split by model or year, and it does not know about any one bike.

Both numbers get replaced if better data turns up: state registration counts, insurance policy counts, title records, club and registry rosters, sales listings over time. Got numbers? Tell us and we will rerun it.